MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)

4.4 4279 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 0.02
+11.76%
Last month
$ 0.12
+171%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 0.159
-24.1%
In a quarter
$ 0.11
-47.43%
In half a year
$ 0.124
-40.9%
In a year
$ 0.2
-4.57%
Action
Decision:
📉 Sell
Confidence:
👍 High
75% - Forecast accuracy
25% - Forecast trend accuracy
100% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
252 offers on 8 markets
Updated0 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
White.Market
White.Market
49 offers
from $ 0.21
ShadowPay
ShadowPay
15 offers
from $ 0.22
Lis-skins
Lis-skins
8 offers
from $ 0.27
Waxpeer
Waxpeer
8 offers
from $ 0.308
CSGO.COM
CSGO.COM
6 offers
from $ 0.358
Bitskins
Bitskins
5 offers
from $ 0.43
Steam
Steam
158 offers
from $ 0.58
Skinport
Skinport
3 offers
from $ 0.67
Inspect skin
MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)
Gallery
MP5-SD | Dirt Drop inspecting MP5-SD | Dirt Drop reloading MP5-SD | Dirt Drop holding MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-1 MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-2 MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 0.19
  • 24h price change: 5.56%
  • 7 days low: $ 0.17
  • 7 days high: $ 3.48
  • 7 days price change: 11.76%
  • 30 days low: $ 0.07
  • 30 days high: $ 3.88
  • 30 days price change: 171%
  • 90 days low: $ 0.04
  • 90 days high: $ 9.79
  • Year low: $ 0.03
  • Year high: $ 9.79
  • All time low: $ 0.03
  • All time high: $ 9.79
  • All time max offers: 655
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 70
  • Sales for last 7 days: 539
  • Sales for last 30 days: 2638
  • Sales for last 90 days: 6485
  • All time sales: 17199
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 4, 2025
  • Risk: -0.87
  • Volatility: 20.06%
  • Liquidity: 9.91%
  • Decision: 📉 Sell
  • Confidence: 👍 High

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 0.159
  • Price forecast change in a month: -24.1%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 0.11
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: -47.43%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 0.124
  • Price forecast change in half a year: -40.9%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 0.2
  • Price forecast change in a year: -4.57%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 0.06
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.06
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 0.096
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.036
60.00%
Result
👍 Success
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 0.04
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.04
July 26, 2025
Price
$ 0.09
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.05
125.00%
Result
👍 Success
October 19, 2025
Price
$ 0.06
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.06
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 0.06
Action
🔥 Buy
July 10, 2025
Price
$ 0.096
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.036
60.00%
Result
👍 Success
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 0.04
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.04
July 26, 2025
Price
$ 0.05
Action
🔥 Buy
August 3, 2025
Price
$ 0.05
Action
🔥 Buy
August 11, 2025
Price
$ 0.06
Action
🔥 Buy
August 19, 2025
Price
$ 0.058
Action
🔥 Buy
August 27, 2025
Price
$ 0.05
Action
🔥 Buy
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 0.061
Action
🔥 Buy
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 0.043
Action
🔥 Buy
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 0.054
Action
🔥 Buy
October 3, 2025
Price
$ 0.07
Action
🔥 Buy
October 11, 2025
Price
$ 0.09
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.05
125.00%
Result
👍 Success
October 19, 2025
Price
$ 0.18
Action
📉 Sell
October 26, 2025
Price
$ 0.23
Action
📉 Sell
October 27, 2025
Price
$ 0.21
Action
📉 Sell
November 4, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 0.086
$ 19.98 - avg*
Invested***
$ 0.1
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
17
Buy count
2
Sell count
2
Success count
2
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 17 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
75%
58% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
25%
44% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
100%
79% - avg*
Damage map
1912
3220
2516
10163
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 30/120
  • Damage: 27
  • Spread: 0.6
  • Rate of fire: 750
  • Movement speed: 235
  • Kill reward: $ 600
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
Related
4.7 3169
In a year 116%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Battle-Scarred
4.7 3124
In a year 202%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Factory New
4.7 3252
In a year 183%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Field-Tested
4.7 3125
In a year 151%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Minimal Wear
4.7 3279
In a year 130%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Well-Worn
4.8 1516
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
$ 0.62
77%
From last month
144 offers on 8 markets
4.8 1537
In a year 50%
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Factory New
$ 4.18
49%
From last month
100 offers on 10 markets
$ 0.64
36%
From last month
420 offers on 8 markets
4.8 1621
In a year 45%
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Minimal Wear
$ 1.28
41%
From last month
168 offers on 9 markets
4.8 1669
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Well-Worn
$ 0.81
98%
From last month
95 offers on 8 markets
4.4 497088
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
4.4 497005
In a year 191%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Battle-Scarred
4.4 497056
In a year 194%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Factory New
4.4 497101
In a year 134%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Field-Tested
$ 6.58
65%
From last month
259 offers on 7 markets
4.4 497047
In a year 138%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Minimal Wear
$ 8.65
31%
From last month
154 offers on 8 markets
4.4 497042
In a year 125%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Well-Worn
$ 7.43
35%
From last month
16 offers on 6 markets
4.8 967033
MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden
Consumer Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Bamboo Garden
4.8 967136
In half a year 34%
MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden
Consumer Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Bamboo Garden
Battle-Scarred

Description

Known for an unprecedented level of versatility and spectacularly popular, the MP5-SD | Dirt Drop features an integrated silencer that makes this normally very loud firearm nearly silent. The sleek-sounding design has been painted with black streaks sprayed over a dark base, recalling the concept that dirt may be innocuous, but it can quickly turn deadly.

History

History

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop was one of the fascinating additions to the in-game arsenal in the virtual theatre of CS2 on September 3rd, 2018. This creation was introduced together with the "Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package" and "FACEIT 2018 – Ways to Watch" update, which gave players both a fancy and grimy version of MP5-SD.

Origin

Origin

The MP5-SD | Dirt Drop in Factory New condition can be retrieved from the Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package, and Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package opening. It is also included in The 2018 Inferno Collection, and hence the demand for this skin among collectors and players alike.

Popularity

Popularity

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is one of the most popular items in the CS2 community, with a rating at 75% popularity. Due to having a rather big average price and sizeable daily sales volume, this makes it part of the top 25 percent of the most wanted in-game items.

Rarity

Rarity

The MP5-SD | Dirt Drop is a skin which occupies the 237 skins for the SMG class in CS2. The Consumer Grade rarity ensures this version of The Dirt Drop is well-spread and, therefore, accessible to players.

Availability

Availability

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop Factory New is an extremely budget skin, and its price varies in a range of $0.01-$1.31, so that it is well within the means of literally any player. Moreover, it is very abundant on different markets, which ensures that anyone interested in it will easily be able to purchase it. As confirmation of its popularity, right now there are 4.4 million units of the skin type 'Dirt Drop' in public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

The float value for an MP5-SD | Dirt Drop ranges between 0.06 and 0.80, so players can get this skin in all available exterior options. Besides, each of these exterior options has its Souvenir version for the skin option called Dirt Drop.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

The MP5-SD | Dirt Drop attracted lots of attention from the community, having more than 4.1K votes on addskins.gg with an average rating of 4.4 out of 5 stars. This is quite popular and happens to be found in the inventories of such professional CS2 players as fnx, olofmeister, and dupreeh.

Finish style

Finish style

The pattern index on the Dirt Drop finish really pops the grays on this MP5-SD. The spray-painted stencil patterns add a lot of depth and texture to make this a battle-hardened look.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 0.159 (-24.1%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will drop to $ 0.11 (-47.43%). Further ahead, it is pojected to fall to $ 0.124 (-40.9%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely drop to $ 0.2 (-4.57%). Confidence is high — it is advised to sell.

Characteristics

Summary

Color

Wear range

0.06
Max: 0.8
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.