Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)

4.4 4288 reviews
facebook}
twitter
Latest price change
Last week
$ 0.33
+32.04%
Last month
$ 0.52
+61.9%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 1.33
-2.21%
In a quarter
$ 1.31
-3.68%
In half a year
$ 0.55
-59.56%
In a year
$ 2.05
+50.74%
Action
Decision:
❌ Avoid
Confidence:
👎 Low
27% - Forecast accuracy
29% - Forecast trend accuracy
50% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
57 offers on 9 markets
Updated6 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
White.Market
White.Market
7 offers
from $ 1.36
Steam
Steam
35 offers
from $ 2.18
Waxpeer
Waxpeer
2 offers
from $ 2.52
ShadowPay
ShadowPay
3 offers
from $ 2.56
Avan.Market
Avan.Market
1 offers
from $ 2.91
Lis-skins
Lis-skins
2 offers
from $ 3.02
CSGO.COM
CSGO.COM
1 offers
from $ 3.31
Skinport
Skinport
3 offers
from $ 6.25
Bitskins
Bitskins
3 offers
from $ 9.99
Inspect skin
Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)
Gallery
MP5-SD | Dirt Drop inspecting MP5-SD | Dirt Drop reloading MP5-SD | Dirt Drop holding MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-1 MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-2 MP5-SD | Dirt Drop pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 1.36
  • 7 days low: $ 1.03
  • 7 days high: $ 16.97
  • 7 days price change: 32.04%
  • 30 days low: $ 0.84
  • 30 days high: $ 16.97
  • 30 days price change: 61.9%
  • 90 days low: $ 0.8
  • 90 days high: $ 16.97
  • Year low: $ 0.71
  • Year high: $ 100
  • All time low: $ 0.71
  • All time high: $ 100
  • All time max offers: 84
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 1
  • Sales for last 7 days: 14
  • Sales for last 30 days: 51
  • Sales for last 90 days: 206
  • All time sales: 544
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 7, 2025
  • Risk: 0.0346
  • Volatility: 35.12%
  • Liquidity: 5.15%
  • Decision: ❌ Avoid
  • Confidence: 👎 Low

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 1.33
  • Price forecast change in a month: -2.21%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 1.31
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: -3.68%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 0.55
  • Price forecast change in half a year: -59.56%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 2.05
  • Price forecast change in a year: 50.74%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 1.68
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 1.68
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 1.21
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ -0.47
-27.98%
Result
👎 Fail
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 0.88
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.88
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 1.26
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.384
43.84%
Result
👍 Success
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 1.14
Action
❌ Avoid
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 1.68
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 1.68
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 1.12
Action
🔥 Buy
July 10, 2025
Price
$ 1.64
Action
🔥 Buy
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
🔥 Buy
July 26, 2025
Price
$ 1.04
Action
🔥 Buy
August 3, 2025
Price
$ 0.8
Action
🔥 Buy
August 11, 2025
Price
$ 1.2
Action
🔥 Buy
August 19, 2025
Price
$ 1.01
Action
🔥 Buy
August 27, 2025
Price
$ 1.14
Action
🔥 Buy
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 0.98
Action
🔥 Buy
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 1.02
Action
🔥 Buy
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 1.21
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ -0.47
-27.98%
Result
👎 Fail
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 0.88
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 0.88
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 1.26
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.384
43.84%
Result
👍 Success
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 1.14
Action
❌ Avoid
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 1.36
Action
❌ Avoid
November 7, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ -0.086
$ 19.98 - avg*
Invested***
$ 2.56
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
16
Buy count
2
Sell count
2
Success count
1
Fail count
1

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 16 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
27%
58% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
29%
44% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
50%
79% - avg*
Damage map
1912
3220
2516
10163
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 30/120
  • Damage: 27
  • Spread: 0.6
  • Rate of fire: 750
  • Movement speed: 235
  • Kill reward: $ 600
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
Related
4.7 3169
In a year 116%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Battle-Scarred
4.7 3124
In a year 202%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Factory New
4.7 3252
In a year 183%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Field-Tested
4.7 3125
In a year 151%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Minimal Wear
4.7 3279
In a year 130%
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
Mil-Spec Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Acid Wash
Well-Worn
4.8 1516
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
$ 0.62
77%
From last month
187 offers on 8 markets
4.8 1537
In a year 50%
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Factory New
$ 3.97
41%
From last month
104 offers on 10 markets
$ 0.64
36%
From last month
450 offers on 8 markets
4.8 1621
In a year 45%
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Minimal Wear
$ 1.28
41%
From last month
192 offers on 9 markets
4.8 1669
MP5-SD | Agent
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Agent
Well-Worn
$ 0.81
98%
From last month
114 offers on 8 markets
4.4 497088
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
4.4 497005
In a year 191%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Battle-Scarred
4.4 497056
In a year 194%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Factory New
4.4 497101
In a year 134%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Field-Tested
$ 6.85
62%
From last month
258 offers on 7 markets
4.4 497047
In a year 138%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Minimal Wear
$ 8.65
31%
From last month
155 offers on 8 markets
4.4 497042
In a year 125%
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Restricted
Normal
MP5-SD
Autumn Twilly
Well-Worn
$ 8.3
35%
From last month
15 offers on 6 markets
4.8 967033
MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden
Consumer Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Bamboo Garden
4.8 967136
In half a year 34%
MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden
Consumer Grade
Normal
MP5-SD
Bamboo Garden
Battle-Scarred

Description

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) displays the timeless excellence of the MP5, a legendary SMG that remains unparalleled in versatility and popularity. With a permanently attached suppressor, this variant promises a truly noiseless approach, enhancing the already formidable firepower. The dark base of the weapon is accentuated with spray-painted black streaks, representing the grim reality of combat where dirt may seem harmless, until it becomes a formidable obstacle.

History

History

The MP5-SD | Dirt Drop was introduced on September 3rd, 2018, when it entered the world of CS2 as a new part of the arsenal. This skin became highly sought after from the Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package, which was released simultaneously with the "FACEIT 2018 – Ways to Watch" update, to show style and skill in the virtual battlegrounds.

Origin

Origin

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is an esteemed skin that can be obtained by opening one of the seven containers that house it, including Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package, and Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package. It is also one of the distinguished members of the exclusive 2018 Inferno Collection.

Popularity

Popularity

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) has become highly popular among CS2 players. Currently, it has a popularity rating of 75%, which puts it in the top 25% of the most popular items in the game, based on its daily sales volume and its market price.

Rarity

Rarity

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is one of 237 other SMG skins in CS2. Yet, its rarity is Consumer Grade, which makes it a pretty common skin that players can come across rather frequently while playing the game.

Availability

Availability

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is a relatively cheap skin, with its price oscillating from $0.01 to $1.31. It's very easy to get your hands on through multiple markets. Currently, there are around 4.4 million units of the Dirt Drop in public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

The Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) exists in all exteriors in CS2, and its float values range from 0.06 to 0.80, which will surely please collectors and players alike. Moreover, for every exterior, there is an available Souvenir version of the Dirt Drop, adding an extra layer of rarity and exclusivity to the skin.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

In fact, the community sentiment towards this CS2 skin, the Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New), speaks volumes as it has gathered a rating of 4.4 out of 5 stars on addskins.gg with over 4.1K votes. Due to its popularity, fnx, olofmeister, and dupreeh have all purchased this skin.

Finish style

Finish style

The pattern index of this Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop Factory New has given it a truly one-of-a-kind look of wear, with the gray tones smudged together realistically. The stencil patterns really make the overall design deeper in texture and more interesting; this is a pretty good-looking and authentic finish.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 1.33 (-2.21%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will drop to $ 1.31 (-3.68%). Further ahead, it is pojected to fall to $ 0.55 (-59.56%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 2.05 (50.74%). Confidence is low — it is advised to avoid.

Characteristics

Summary

Color

Wear range

0.06
Max: 0.8
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.