Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)

4.4 2305 reviews
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Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 320
-1.71%
In a quarter
$ 308
-5.39%
In half a year
$ 302
-7.24%
In a year
$ 531
+63.1%
Action
Decision:
🔥 Buy
Confidence:
🤔 Medium
100% - Forecast accuracy
100% - Forecast trend accuracy
0% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
5 offers on 3 markets
Updated2 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
Skinport
Skinport
2 offers
from $ 279
Steam
Steam
2 offers
from $ 389
Waxpeer
Waxpeer
1 offers
from $ 500
Inspect skin
Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)
Gallery
XM1014 | Fallout Warning inspecting XM1014 | Fallout Warning reloading XM1014 | Fallout Warning holding XM1014 | Fallout Warning pose-1 XM1014 | Fallout Warning pose-2 XM1014 | Fallout Warning pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 279
  • 7 days low: $ 279
  • 7 days high: $ 500
  • 7 days price change: 0%
  • 30 days low: $ 279
  • 30 days high: $ 500
  • 30 days price change: 0%
  • 90 days low: $ 279
  • 90 days high: $ 526
  • Year low: $ 120
  • Year high: $ 1 140
  • All time low: $ 120
  • All time high: $ 5 060
  • All time max offers: 6
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 0
  • Sales for last 7 days: 0
  • Sales for last 30 days: 0
  • Sales for last 90 days: 3
  • All time sales: 8
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 7, 2025
  • Risk: 2.49
  • Volatility: 8.82%
  • Liquidity: 2.38%
  • Decision: 🔥 Buy
  • Confidence: 🤔 Medium

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 320
  • Price forecast change in a month: -1.71%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 308
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: -5.39%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 302
  • Price forecast change in half a year: -7.24%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 531
  • Price forecast change in a year: 63.1%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 377
Action
❌ Avoid
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 284
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 284
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 284
Action
📉 Sell
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 324
Action
❌ Avoid
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 327
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 327
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 377
Action
❌ Avoid
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 307
Action
❌ Avoid
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 303
Action
❌ Avoid
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 329
Action
❌ Avoid
July 27, 2025
Price
$ 284
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 284
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 284
Action
📉 Sell
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 324
Action
❌ Avoid
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 325
Action
❌ Avoid
September 1, 2025
Price
$ 326
Action
❌ Avoid
September 9, 2025
Price
$ 327
Action
❌ Avoid
September 17, 2025
Price
$ 327
Action
❌ Avoid
September 25, 2025
Price
$ 326
Action
❌ Avoid
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 397
Action
❌ Avoid
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 401
Action
❌ Avoid
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 327
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 327
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 325
Action
🔥 Buy
November 7, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 0
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 284
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
16
Buy count
1
Sell count
0
Success count
0
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 16 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
100%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
100%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
0%
79% - avg*
Damage map
1310
2217
1714
7056
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 7/32
  • Damage: 20
  • Spread: 38.0
  • Rate of fire: 171
  • Movement speed: 215
  • Kill reward: $ 900
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
Related
$ 3.11
109%
From last month
51 offers on 9 markets
4.6 10638
In a year 156%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Spruce
Field-Tested
$ 16.32
42%
From last month
46 offers on 8 markets
4.6 10631
In half a year -56%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Spruce
Minimal Wear
$ 38.42
61%
From last month
12 offers on 3 markets
4.6 10786
In a year 102%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Spruce
Well-Worn
4.5 7414
In a year 202%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Field-Tested
4.5 7537
In a month -39%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
4.5 7502
In a year 167%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Well-Worn
$ 0.05
150%
From last month
258 offers on 8 markets
$ 0.07
40%
From last month
308 offers on 8 markets

Description

The Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning is a powerful automatic shotgun that hails with terror, putting up a storm of bullets as fast as possible, earning the respect of everyone around it. The radiological warning hazard patterns are striking against its surface with spray paints, serving to remind them of the destruction it beholds.

History

History

XM1014 | Fallout Warning, Factory New was added to Counter-Strike: Global Offensive on August 14th, 2013, in the Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package and simultaneously with "The Arms Deal" update. It rapidly became an extremely popular shotgun skin because of its unique nuclear fallout warning design and its excellent condition.

Origin

Origin

The XM1014 | Fallout Warning was designed as a souvenir skin for the CS2 tournament. It is obtainable through containers that correspond to these events, including Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package, and Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package. This skin also belongs to the collectible series The Nuke Collection.

Popularity

Popularity

The Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) is in high demand among CS2 enthusiasts, having a popularity of 70%. It lies within the top 30% of items in Counter-Strike with regards to popularity, as measured through its daily sales volume and price in the market.

Rarity

Rarity

The Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) is one out of 134 Shotgun skins in CS2. The rarity of this skin is Industrial Grade, so it is pretty common, and players frequently come across it during their gameplay.

Availability

Availability

The Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning Factory New skin for CS2 is available in a quite broad price range - within $2.06 to $117.89. For this reason, buying the skin will not bring considerable financial damage to players. Also, it is currently widely available at different markets, with roughly 15.7K units of the Fallout Warning skin existing in public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

The XM1014 | Fallout Warning has a float value range of 0.06-0.80 in Factory New condition, making this skin available in all possible exteriors. There is also a Souvenir version of the Fallout Warning available for each exterior option.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

The community sentiment towards the Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) in CS2 is highly positive, with an average rating of 4.4 stars out of 5 based on over 2.2K votes on addskins.gg. Additionally, its popularity is further solidified by its ownership among renowned professional players such as get_right, arya, and shroud.

Finish style

Finish style

The Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) in CS2 features a realistic "Spray-Paint" style, where stencils were thoroughly sprayed with many layers of paint. In general, the main tone of this skin is its bright red shade; however, pattern variations don't change the Fallout Warning finish.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 320 (-1.71%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will drop to $ 308 (-5.39%). Further ahead, it is pojected to fall to $ 302 (-7.24%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 531 (63.1%). Confidence is medium — it is advised to buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Color

Wear range

0.06
Max: 0.8
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.