StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)

4.5 2486 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 0.01
+0.81%
Last month
$ 0.24
+24%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 1.24
0.0%
In a quarter
$ 1.52
+22.58%
Action
Decision:
❌ Avoid
Confidence:
👎 Low
20% - Forecast accuracy
20% - Forecast trend accuracy
0% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
154 offers on 9 markets
Updated2 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
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2 offers
from $ 2.69
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11 offers
from $ 2.97
ShadowPay
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10 offers
from $ 3.05
CS.DEALS
CS.DEALS
1 offers
from $ 9
Inspect skin
StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Gallery
UMP-45 | Riot inspecting UMP-45 | Riot reloading UMP-45 | Riot holding UMP-45 | Riot pose-1 UMP-45 | Riot pose-2 UMP-45 | Riot pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 1.24
  • 7 days low: $ 1.23
  • 7 days high: $ 176
  • 7 days price change: 0.81%
  • 30 days low: $ 1
  • 30 days high: $ 177
  • 30 days price change: 24%
  • 90 days low: $ 1
  • 90 days high: $ 178
  • Year low: $ 0.83
  • Year high: $ 500
  • All time low: $ 0.83
  • All time high: $ 500
  • All time max offers: 192
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 5
  • Sales for last 7 days: 52
  • Sales for last 30 days: 222
  • Sales for last 90 days: 547
  • All time sales: 1718
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 4, 2025
  • Risk: 0.2539
  • Volatility: 22.72%
  • Liquidity: 37.42%
  • Decision: ❌ Avoid
  • Confidence: 👎 Low

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 1.24
  • Price forecast change in a month: 0.0%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 1.52
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: 22.58%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 1.16
Action
✋ Hold
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
❌ Avoid
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
✋ Hold
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 1.13
Action
❌ Avoid
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 1.38
Action
✋ Hold
September 17, 2025
Price
$ 1.34
Action
❌ Avoid
September 25, 2025
Price
$ 1.16
Action
✋ Hold
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 1.21
Action
✋ Hold
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
❌ Avoid
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
❌ Avoid
July 27, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
✋ Hold
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 1.13
Action
❌ Avoid
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 1.17
Action
❌ Avoid
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 1.12
Action
❌ Avoid
September 1, 2025
Price
$ 1.18
Action
❌ Avoid
September 9, 2025
Price
$ 1.38
Action
✋ Hold
September 17, 2025
Price
$ 1.34
Action
❌ Avoid
September 25, 2025
Price
$ 1.32
Action
❌ Avoid
October 3, 2025
Price
$ 1.23
Action
❌ Avoid
October 11, 2025
Price
$ 1.33
Action
❌ Avoid
October 19, 2025
Price
$ 1.33
Action
❌ Avoid
October 27, 2025
Price
$ 1.27
Action
❌ Avoid
November 4, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 0
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 0
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
16
Buy count
0
Sell count
0
Success count
0
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 16 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
20%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
20%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
0%
79% - avg*
Damage map
2315
3925
3120
12581
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 25/100
  • Damage: 35
  • Spread: 1.0
  • Rate of fire: 667
  • Movement speed: 230
  • Kill reward: $ 600
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
Related
4.6 4080
In a year 170%
UMP-45 | Blaze
Mil-Spec Grade
Souvenir
UMP-45
Blaze
Factory New
$ 84.54
55%
From last month
19 offers on 6 markets
$ 0.02
100%
From last month
1629 offers on 5 markets
$ 0.04
60%
From last month
345 offers on 5 markets
4.8 561114
In half a year -51%
UMP-45 | Fade
Classified
Souvenir
UMP-45
Fade
Factory New
$ 52.27
128%
From last month
294 offers on 10 markets
4.8 561065
In half a year -32%
UMP-45 | Fade
Classified
Souvenir
UMP-45
Fade
Minimal Wear
$ 68
46%
From last week
10 offers on 3 markets
$ 3.78
38%
From last month
90 offers on 9 markets
$ 13.99
66%
From last month
26 offers on 8 markets
4.9 6190
In a year 213%
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
UMP-45
Gunsmoke
Field-Tested
$ 55.14
42%
From last week
19 offers on 7 markets
4.9 6157
In a year 69%
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
UMP-45
Gunsmoke
Minimal Wear
$ 0.97
43%
From last month
134 offers on 6 markets

Description

The UMP-45 | Riot has a Factory New condition and is one of those SMGs known to be extremely reliable in close-quarters combat, with its only letdown being its low magazine capacity. The design has been done by combining hydrographics with heat-transfer decals, resulting in an intimidating appearance that may show the extent of its use for destruction.

History

History

The StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot was first shown in CS2 on May 26th, 2015, when it was released as part of the Falchion Case. This striking skin, made by the popular community artist "M1nD," became highly sought after in-game because of its sleek and aggressive design, thus being one of the hottest items on the CS2 marketplace.

Origin

Origin

The StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) is one of the popular CS2 skins, and it is the freshest in its condition and unique in its design. It opens from Falchion Case for getting an in-game drop from The Falchion Collection, including this StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot.

Popularity

Popularity

The StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) has a popularity rating of 85%, which is one of the highest 15% most popular skins in CS2. This grade is determined by the skin's sales volume over a certain period and its current market price.

Rarity

Rarity

The UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) is one of the 237 skins in the SMG category in CS2. Mil-Spec Grade is its rarity and, thus, a rather frequently dropped skin that is supposed to have a drop chance of 79.92%.

Availability

Availability

The CS2 StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) offers players an affordable range from $0.17-$0.78 to upgrade at a low cost. Moreover, this skin is easy to get since one can purchase it from different markets, hence its availability is huge for any buyer. Its popularity among the players is reflected by the 771.3K units found in the public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

The float value of the UMP-45 | Riot in Factory New condition is between 0.00 and 0.70, making this skin available in all kinds of exteriors-from really fresh ones up to a bit worn out. There is also, for every exterior, a StatTrak version of the UMP-45 | Riot in order for the player to track kills in style and precision.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

CS2- The community sentiment on StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) is basically positive, with more than 2.4K votes in which an average rating of 4.5 out of 5 stars was accumulated on addskins.gg. It is owned by famous professional players like aizy, neo, and zeus-a fact that proves its popularity among the bests within this esports.

Finish style

Finish style

The UMP-45 | Riot skin in CS2 features a StatTrak, Factory New skin with a custom paint job style that allows any color to be painted anywhere on the object. Therefore, its main color is bright and attractive green. The finish of Riot looks the same for all pattern indexes and is as appealing for any of them.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the StatTrak UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) is expected grow to $ 1.24 (0.0%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will rise to $ 1.52 (22.58%). Confidence is low — it is advised to avoid.

Characteristics

Summary

Color

Wear range

0.03
Max: 0.7
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.

Pro Players