StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear)

4.9 1235 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 0.44
+10.43%
Last month
$ 1.75
+60.14%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 5.71
+22.27%
In a quarter
$ 6.04
+29.34%
Action
Decision:
🔥 Buy
Confidence:
👍 High
83% - Forecast accuracy
67% - Forecast trend accuracy
100% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
190 offers on 9 markets
Updated6 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
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Inspect skin
StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear)
Gallery
XM1014 | Watchdog inspecting XM1014 | Watchdog reloading XM1014 | Watchdog holding XM1014 | Watchdog pose-1 XM1014 | Watchdog pose-2 XM1014 | Watchdog pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 4.66
  • 7 days low: $ 4.22
  • 7 days high: $ 23.42
  • 7 days price change: 10.43%
  • 30 days low: $ 2.91
  • 30 days high: $ 23.6
  • 30 days price change: 60.14%
  • 90 days low: $ 2.91
  • 90 days high: $ 59.54
  • Year low: $ 2.91
  • Year high: $ 1 662
  • All time low: $ 2.91
  • All time high: $ 1 662
  • All time max offers: 257
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 16
  • Sales for last 7 days: 106
  • Sales for last 30 days: 403
  • Sales for last 90 days: 882
  • All time sales: 2457
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 7, 2025
  • Risk: 1.29
  • Volatility: 12.39%
  • Liquidity: 27.9%
  • Decision: 🔥 Buy
  • Confidence: 👍 High

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 5.71
  • Price forecast change in a month: 22.27%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 6.04
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: 29.34%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 5.03
Action
✋ Hold
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 5.15
Action
❌ Avoid
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 4.76
Action
✋ Hold
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 5.94
Action
❌ Avoid
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 5.33
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 5.33
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 5.82
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.49
9.19%
Result
👍 Success
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 4.78
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 4.78
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 5.72
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.94
19.67%
Result
👍 Success
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 3.83
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 3.83
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 5.03
Action
✋ Hold
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 5.15
Action
❌ Avoid
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 4.7
Action
❌ Avoid
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 4.76
Action
❌ Avoid
July 27, 2025
Price
$ 4.76
Action
✋ Hold
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 4.77
Action
✋ Hold
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 5.94
Action
❌ Avoid
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 6.55
Action
❌ Avoid
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 5.33
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 5.33
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 5.82
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.49
9.19%
Result
👍 Success
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 4.78
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 4.78
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 5.21
Action
🔥 Buy
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 5.72
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 0.94
19.67%
Result
👍 Success
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 3.83
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 3.83
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 4.54
Action
🔥 Buy
November 7, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 1.43
$ 19.98 - avg*
Invested***
$ 13.94
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
15
Buy count
3
Sell count
2
Success count
2
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 15 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
83%
58% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
67%
44% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
100%
79% - avg*
Damage map
1310
2217
1714
7056
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 7/32
  • Damage: 20
  • Spread: 38.0
  • Rate of fire: 171
  • Movement speed: 215
  • Kill reward: $ 900
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
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Description

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) is an automatic shotgun that boasts very impressive firepower; hence, it is well worth the investment by those who want to rule the fields of close combat. This sleek jade green finish is painted with guardian lions that symbolize protection and prosperity. A third lion is positioned beneath the rear sight for that extra touch of vigilance.

History

History

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) was released on September 21st, 2021, and was added to Counter-Strike: Global Offensive when the Operation Riptide Case was released. This skin was designed by a talented community artist named "Zaphk," and it quickly became popular among players due to its sleek, tactical look and thus became highly demanded on the CS2 market.

Origin

Origin

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog-Minimal Wear is a rare skin that can only be obtained by opening an Operation Riptide Case container. It is the exclusive skin within the Operation Riptide Collection, styling and giving utility to the shotgun XM1014.

Popularity

Popularity

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) is one of the most popular skins in CS2, ranking 85% in popularity. This skin is among the top 15% of the rarest items in the game, considering its daily sales volume and price.

Rarity

Rarity

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) is a CS2 Shotgun skin, and it is one of 134 Shotgun skins in the game. It has a Mil-Spec Grade rarity classification, making it relatively common to drop. The drop chance estimate is 79.92%.

Availability

Availability

The cheapest skin is the Skin of the StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear), which costs in-game from $0.19-$7.43. This skin is available today, and it can be purchased from any market. There are 963.9K units of this skin in public CS2 inventories, which is huge.

Versions

Versions

The StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) exists in all exteriors and has a float value between 0.00 and 1.00 inclusive. For each exterior, there is also a StatTrak variant that allows the player to track their kills with this skin.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

The community sentiment for the StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) in CS2 is extremely positive, with a rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars based on over 1.1K votes on addskins.gg. This fact is further supported by the ownership of this skin by professional players such as coldzera and s1mple.

Finish style

Finish style

This XM1014 features a "Gunsmith" style, with perfectly balanced patina in custom paint applications creating a one-of-a-kind Watchdog finish. The green and brown coloration gives it a somewhat realistic look, while the pattern indexes don't affect the skin's distinctive appearance.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the StatTrak XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) is expected grow to $ 5.71 (22.27%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will rise to $ 6.04 (29.34%). Confidence is high — it is advised to buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Wear range

0.11
Max: 1.0
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.

Pro Players