UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New)

4.9 2433 reviews
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Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 148
+18.0%
In a quarter
$ 178
+41.92%
In half a year
$ 208
+65.84%
In a year
$ 280
+123.0%
Action
Decision:
🔥 Buy
Confidence:
👍 High
40% - Forecast accuracy
40% - Forecast trend accuracy
0% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
60 offers on 10 markets
Updated3 minutes ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
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13 offers
from $ 123
White.Market
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10 offers
from $ 128
Waxpeer
Waxpeer
9 offers
from $ 129
ShadowPay
ShadowPay
5 offers
from $ 147
Avan.Market
Avan.Market
1 offers
from $ 169
Steam
Steam
13 offers
from $ 170
Bitskins
Bitskins
1 offers
from $ 187
Skinport
Skinport
2 offers
from $ 187
CSGO.COM
CSGO.COM
5 offers
from $ 188
CSGOEmpire
CSGOEmpire
1 offers
from $ 247
Inspect skin
UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New)
Gallery
UMP-45 | Day Lily inspecting UMP-45 | Day Lily reloading UMP-45 | Day Lily holding UMP-45 | Day Lily pose-1 UMP-45 | Day Lily pose-2 UMP-45 | Day Lily pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 123
  • 7 days low: $ 123
  • 7 days high: $ 976
  • 7 days price change: 0%
  • 30 days low: $ 123
  • 30 days high: $ 1 533
  • 30 days price change: 0%
  • 90 days low: $ 123
  • 90 days high: $ 1 533
  • Year low: $ 101
  • Year high: $ 29 899
  • All time low: $ 75.73
  • All time high: $ 29 899
  • All time max offers: 73
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 0
  • Sales for last 7 days: 1
  • Sales for last 30 days: 13
  • Sales for last 90 days: 21
  • All time sales: 47
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 7, 2025
  • Risk: 9.41
  • Volatility: 8.26%
  • Liquidity: 3.21%
  • Decision: 🔥 Buy
  • Confidence: 👍 High

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 148
  • Price forecast change in a month: 18.0%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 178
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: 41.92%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 208
  • Price forecast change in half a year: 65.84%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 280
  • Price forecast change in a year: 123.0%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 150
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 150
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 150
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 150
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 170
Action
🔥 Buy
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 153
Action
🔥 Buy
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 151
Action
🔥 Buy
July 27, 2025
Price
$ 166
Action
🔥 Buy
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 165
Action
🔥 Buy
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 170
Action
🔥 Buy
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 163
Action
🔥 Buy
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 172
Action
🔥 Buy
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 170
Action
🔥 Buy
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 168
Action
🔥 Buy
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 169
Action
🔥 Buy
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 155
Action
🔥 Buy
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 138
Action
🔥 Buy
October 30, 2025
Price
$ 129
Action
🔥 Buy
November 7, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 0
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 150
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
15
Buy count
1
Sell count
0
Success count
0
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 15 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
40%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
40%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
0%
79% - avg*
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Description

History

History

The UMP-45 | Day Lily is a Factory New skin that dropped into CS2 for the first time on November 18th, 2019, when the long-anticipated "Operation Shattered Web" update finally came. Wearing an explosive floral design in pristine condition, it swiftly turned into one of the most wanted skins by players.

Origin

Origin

The UMP-45 | Day Lily can't be pulled out from any container opening, but was part of an exclusive Collection: St. Marc Collection - the reason this skin is extremely well sought after. Its unbelievable Factory New condition makes the flowers look so very detailed, therefore being a collector's and a player's prize.

Popularity

Popularity

The UMP-45 | Day Lily is a popular choice amongst the CS2 skin community, currently ranked at 75%. With regard to daily sales volume and value, the market price for it is among the top 25% most wanted skins.

Rarity

Rarity

The UMP-45 | Day Lily is one of 237 other SMG skins, making it around average in terms of availability. This skin is classified as Mil-Spec Grade and is relatively easy to obtain, featuring a drop chance estimated at 79.92%.

Availability

Availability

The UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New) skin has a pretty cheap price: from $62.56 up to $92.37, which allows CS2 players to be able to buy it easily and without significant losses. Moreover, this skin is highly available since it can be found on several markets, and that means a player will have several options to buy it. Currently, there are about 8.4K units of the Day Lily skin in public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

The float value for a UMP-45 | Day Lily in Factory New condition ranges from 0.00 to 0.55, which means that this skin can be pulled in several wear levels. Unfortunately for collectors, there are no StatTrak nor Souvenir variants of the Day Lily available.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

Community loves UMP-45 | Day Lily; for this very reason, this gun received more than 2.3K votes with an outstanding average rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars. This popularity finds proof even from ownership by the great pro CS2 player xyp9x himself.

Finish style

Finish style

The UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New) features, in CS2, an extremely striking "Hydrographic" style in which the disassembled weapon parts are carefully dipped through a floating hydrographic film on top of a water tank; the film adheres to the primed weapon parts, revealing a dizzying pattern that changes in looks according to its pattern index, thereby creating a neat and eye-catching Day Lily finish.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New) is expected grow to $ 148 (18.0%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will rise to $ 178 (41.92%). Further ahead, it is pojected to increase to $ 208 (65.84%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 280 (123.0%). Confidence is high — it is advised to buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Wear range

0.03
Max: 0.55
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.

Pro Players