XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)

4.9 1110 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 1.01
+25.51%
Last month
$ 1.14
+29.77%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 4.22
-14.05%
In a quarter
$ 4.95
+0.81%
In half a year
$ 5.99
+22.0%
In a year
$ 10.23
+108.0%
Action
Decision:
🔥 Buy
Confidence:
👍 High
60% - Forecast accuracy
60% - Forecast trend accuracy
0% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
162 offers on 8 markets
Updated1 minute ago
Marketplace
Market rating
Active offers
Price
Lis-skins
Lis-skins
5 offers
from $ 4.97
White.Market
White.Market
39 offers
from $ 5.53
ShadowPay
ShadowPay
33 offers
from $ 5.67
Waxpeer
Waxpeer
3 offers
from $ 5.93
CSGO.COM
CSGO.COM
13 offers
from $ 6
Skinport
Skinport
19 offers
from $ 6.34
Steam
Steam
48 offers
from $ 7.78
Bitskins
Bitskins
2 offers
from $ 19.99
Inspect skin
XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)
Gallery
XM1014 | Watchdog inspecting XM1014 | Watchdog reloading XM1014 | Watchdog holding XM1014 | Watchdog pose-1 XM1014 | Watchdog pose-2 XM1014 | Watchdog pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 4.97
  • 24h price change: 1.22%
  • 7 days low: $ 3.96
  • 7 days high: $ 407
  • 7 days price change: 25.51%
  • 30 days low: $ 3.83
  • 30 days high: $ 407
  • 30 days price change: 29.77%
  • 90 days low: $ 3.83
  • 90 days high: $ 407
  • Year low: $ 3
  • Year high: $ 736
  • All time low: $ 2.37
  • All time high: $ 736
  • All time max offers: 173
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 14
  • Sales for last 7 days: 102
  • Sales for last 30 days: 392
  • Sales for last 90 days: 844
  • All time sales: 2365
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 2, 2025
  • Risk: 6.94
  • Volatility: 12.51%
  • Liquidity: 10.74%
  • Decision: 🔥 Buy
  • Confidence: 👍 High

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 4.22
  • Price forecast change in a month: -14.05%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 4.95
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: 0.81%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 5.99
  • Price forecast change in half a year: 22.0%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 10.23
  • Price forecast change in a year: 108.0%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 4.96
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 4.96
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 4.96
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 4.96
July 3, 2025
Price
$ 4.69
Action
🔥 Buy
July 11, 2025
Price
$ 4.2
Action
🔥 Buy
July 19, 2025
Price
$ 4.47
Action
🔥 Buy
July 27, 2025
Price
$ 4.34
Action
🔥 Buy
August 4, 2025
Price
$ 4.62
Action
🔥 Buy
August 12, 2025
Price
$ 4.74
Action
🔥 Buy
August 20, 2025
Price
$ 5.07
Action
🔥 Buy
September 1, 2025
Price
$ 5.37
Action
🔥 Buy
September 9, 2025
Price
$ 5.29
Action
🔥 Buy
September 17, 2025
Price
$ 5.69
Action
🔥 Buy
September 25, 2025
Price
$ 5.41
Action
🔥 Buy
October 4, 2025
Price
$ 5.12
Action
🔥 Buy
October 12, 2025
Price
$ 5.75
Action
🔥 Buy
October 20, 2025
Price
$ 4.2
Action
🔥 Buy
October 29, 2025
Price
$ 5.89
Action
🔥 Buy
November 2, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 0
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 4.96
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
16
Buy count
1
Sell count
0
Success count
0
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 16 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
60%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
60%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
0%
79% - avg*
Damage map
1310
2217
1714
7056
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Terrorists, Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 7/32
  • Damage: 20
  • Spread: 38.0
  • Rate of fire: 171
  • Movement speed: 215
  • Kill reward: $ 900
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
Related
$ 3.11
109%
From last month
52 offers on 9 markets
4.6 10638
In a year 156%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
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Field-Tested
$ 16.32
42%
From last month
46 offers on 8 markets
4.6 10631
In half a year -56%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Spruce
Minimal Wear
$ 38.42
61%
From last month
13 offers on 3 markets
4.6 10786
In a year 102%
XM1014 | Blue Spruce
Consumer Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Spruce
Well-Worn
4.5 7414
In a year 202%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Field-Tested
4.5 7537
In a month -39%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
4.5 7502
In a year 167%
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Industrial Grade
Souvenir
XM1014
Blue Steel
Well-Worn
$ 0.05
150%
From last month
260 offers on 8 markets
$ 0.07
40%
From last month
305 offers on 8 markets

Description

XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) This was the most intimidating fully automatic shotgun in-game that could lay out a storm of lethal projectiles at amazing speed. The striking jade green base with intricately painted guardian lions represents protection and prosperity. A third lion sits artfully below the rear sight, a constant reminder of this weapon's watchful presence.

History

History

The XM1014 | Watchdog was presented to the CS2 community on September 21st, 2021, together with the Operation Riptide Case, which appeared with the release of the "Operation Riptide" update. This striking skin was elaborately created by the highly talented community designer "Zaphk," who put his creativity and attention to detail into it.

Origin

Origin

The Factory New XM1014 | Watchdog is one of the more popular skins, and it comes from the Operation Riptide Case container that can reward a player with getting a few special skins for firearms. This skin is one of the most valued items in the Operation Riptide Collection: a set of carefully crafted designs available only during the operation.

Popularity

Popularity

The XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) is extremely popular and is for now in the top 15% of the rarest skins in CS2. Such a conclusion can be drawn by the very high sales volumes occurring with this skin, and the high price the skin costs obviously is driven by very strong demand from buyers.

Rarity

Rarity

The XM1014 | Watchdog is a pretty common in-game shotgun skin featuring a float value of 134 other skins. This skin is of Mil-Spec Grade rarity and has an estimated drop chance of 79.92%, hence pretty common in-game.

Availability

Availability

The XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) has a relatively modest price, which ranges from $0.19 to $7.43, so this skin is available for players of any budget. At this moment, this skin is highly obtainable since this skin is available in several markets, and there're about 963.9K units of Watchdog skin in public CS2 inventories.

Versions

Versions

Factory New, the float value of the XM1014 | Watchdog ranges from 0.00 to 1.00, meaning this skin can be found in all of its exteriors, of consistently consistent quality. Adding on to that, each exterior iteration of the Watchdog has a StatTrak option for those that want to track their kills in style.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

The XM1014 | Watchdog has garnered significant community support, with over 1.1K votes on addskins.gg and an impressive average rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars. Its popularity is further solidified by its ownership by renowned professional CS2 players coldzera and s1mple, highlighting its desirability among competitive gamers.

Finish style

Finish style

This Factory New XM1014 | Watchdog has a "Gunsmith" style applied in an impeccable manner, boasting a bold combination of patina with custom paint. The skin comes in an interesting mix of green and brown colors, while pattern indexes have no effect on the distinctive Watchdog finish.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 4.22 (-14.05%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will rise to $ 4.95 (0.81%). Further ahead, it is pojected to increase to $ 5.99 (22.0%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 10.23 (108.0%). Confidence is high — it is advised to buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Wear range

0.03
Max: 1.0
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.

Pro Players