M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)

4.9 9001 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 55
+4.41%
Last month
$ 413
+46.4%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 1 169
-11.19%
In a quarter
$ 1 000
-24.03%
In half a year
$ 1 228
-6.7%
In a year
$ 2 684
+104.0%
Action
Decision:
🔥 Buy
Confidence:
👍 High
73% - Forecast accuracy
17% - Forecast trend accuracy
100% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
142 offers on 9 markets
Updated1 minute ago
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Inspect skin
M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)
Gallery
M4A4 | Daybreak inspecting M4A4 | Daybreak reloading M4A4 | Daybreak holding M4A4 | Daybreak pose-1 M4A4 | Daybreak pose-2 M4A4 | Daybreak pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 1 303
  • 7 days low: $ 1 248
  • 7 days high: $ 3 151
  • 7 days price change: 4.41%
  • 30 days low: $ 890
  • 30 days high: $ 6 194
  • 30 days price change: 46.4%
  • 90 days low: $ 522
  • 90 days high: $ 6 194
  • Year low: $ 267
  • Year high: $ 101 472
  • All time low: $ 199
  • All time high: $ 101 472
  • All time max offers: 182
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 0
  • Sales for last 7 days: 13
  • Sales for last 30 days: 41
  • Sales for last 90 days: 111
  • All time sales: 330
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 3, 2025
  • Risk: 1.6
  • Volatility: 16.27%
  • Liquidity: 6.0%
  • Decision: 🔥 Buy
  • Confidence: 👍 High

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 1 169
  • Price forecast change in a month: -11.19%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 1 000
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: -24.03%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 1 228
  • Price forecast change in half a year: -6.7%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 2 684
  • Price forecast change in a year: 104.0%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 599
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 599
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 1 568
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 969
161.73%
Result
👍 Success
October 16, 2025
Price
$ 1 077
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 1 077
October 24, 2025
Price
$ 599
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 599
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 657
Action
🔥 Buy
July 10, 2025
Price
$ 495
Action
🔥 Buy
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 567
Action
🔥 Buy
July 26, 2025
Price
$ 577
Action
🔥 Buy
August 3, 2025
Price
$ 540
Action
🔥 Buy
August 11, 2025
Price
$ 539
Action
🔥 Buy
August 19, 2025
Price
$ 597
Action
🔥 Buy
August 27, 2025
Price
$ 686
Action
🔥 Buy
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 870
Action
🔥 Buy
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 663
Action
🔥 Buy
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 962
Action
🔥 Buy
September 28, 2025
Price
$ 1 030
Action
🔥 Buy
October 6, 2025
Price
$ 1 568
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 969
161.73%
Result
👍 Success
October 16, 2025
Price
$ 1 077
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 1 077
October 24, 2025
Price
$ 1 367
Action
🔥 Buy
October 26, 2025
Price
$ 1 366
Action
🔥 Buy
November 3, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 969
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 1 676
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
17
Buy count
2
Sell count
1
Success count
1
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 17 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
73%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
17%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
100%
79% - avg*
Damage map
2417
4129
3323
13091
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 30/90
  • Damage: 33
  • Spread: 0.6
  • Rate of fire: 667
  • Movement speed: 225
  • Kill reward: $ 300
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
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Description

M4A4 | Daybreak Factory New: This assault rifle is a dependable choice for the Counter-Terrorist team, with improved accuracy, taking a moderate toll on its damage as compared to the AK-47. Its metallic paint job has been strikingly done, showing a breathtaking view of sunrise, signifying that justice and equity befall one and all, whichever end they fall to.

History

History

The M4A4 | Daybreak entered the world of CS2, coming on May 26th, 2015, in the highly expected "The Hunter and the Hunted" update. Since then, this battle-worn skin has become a badge of resilience and survival on the virtual battlefield, impressing players with its worn-out yet striking look.

Origin

Origin

The M4A4 Daybreak is a skin that is only available and cannot be pulled from any container openings; it is instead part of the Rising Sun Collection, which celebrates vibrant colors and the beauty of a dawn breaking over the horizon. The skin is Factory New, with all its intricate details and pristine finish completely showing the essence of a new day breaking into the battlefield.

Popularity

Popularity

M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) is so popular that it has reached a staggering 90% in the player base of CS2 and is considered one of the most popular items in the game. One can determine the popularity from the daily sales volume or market value of the skin, showing this skin is highly sought after by the player community.

Rarity

Rarity

M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) - Field-tested in Canals, this skin is one of 255 Rifle skins in CS2. Its rarity is Restricted; It's pretty rare and drops from chests only about 15.98% of the time.

Versions

Versions

The float value of M4A4 | Daybreak in Factory New condition is from 0.00 to 0.60, which gives a guarantee that the given skin will be offered for several types of exterior skin with different wear levels. Still, collectors and enthusiasts should keep in mind that StatTrak and Souvenir forms of M4A4 | Daybreak do not exist.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

M4A4 | Daybreak enjoyed enormous backing in the community on addskins.gg, with more than 9K votes and an average rating as high as 4.9 out of 5 stars. This skin is quite popular among CS2 pros, and is owned proudly by such well-known players as hobbit, krystal, and gratisfaction.

Finish style

Finish style

This Factory New M4A4 skin, Daybreak, is painted with a multicolored candy coat finish on top of a bright candy coat undercoat. The painting in this skin has been done using techniques such as silk-screening or adherable stencils. The base color for this skin is toward the richer brown tint, and the appearance of the skin mostly depends upon the pattern index, since every single weapon bearing the same skin looks quite different from another one.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 1 169 (-11.19%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will drop to $ 1 000 (-24.03%). Further ahead, it is pojected to fall to $ 1 228 (-6.7%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 2 684 (104.0%). Confidence is high — it is advised to buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Color

Wear range

0.03
Max: 0.6
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.