M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)

4.7 2188 reviews
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Latest price change
Last week
$ 297
+15.04%
Last month
$ 872
+62.29%
Price forecast
Check full price forecast
In a month
$ 1 958
-8.44%
In a quarter
$ 1 433
-32.99%
In half a year
$ 1 713
-19.9%
In a year
$ 4 250
+98.73%
Action
Decision:
🎯 Buy
Confidence:
🤔 Medium
70% - Forecast accuracy
29% - Forecast trend accuracy
100% - Successes/failures
Check full forecast statistics
141 offers on 8 markets
Updated3 minutes ago
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Inspect skin
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)
Gallery
M4A4 | The Coalition inspecting M4A4 | The Coalition reloading M4A4 | The Coalition holding M4A4 | The Coalition pose-1 M4A4 | The Coalition pose-2 M4A4 | The Coalition pose-3
Price history
Price statistics
  • Today minimal price: $ 2 272
  • 24h price change: 6.22%
  • 7 days low: $ 1 975
  • 7 days high: $ 5 235
  • 7 days price change: 15.04%
  • 30 days low: $ 1 400
  • 30 days high: $ 9 829
  • 30 days price change: 62.29%
  • 90 days low: $ 491
  • 90 days high: $ 9 829
  • Year low: $ 212
  • Year high: $ 61 788
  • All time low: $ 212
  • All time high: $ 61 788
  • All time max offers: 241
  • Sales for last 24 hours: 0
  • Sales for last 7 days: 1
  • Sales for last 30 days: 14
  • Sales for last 90 days: 73
  • All time sales: 229
Price forecast
Price forecast full data
  • Forecast date: Nov. 4, 2025
  • Risk: 0.95
  • Volatility: 16.54%
  • Liquidity: 6.61%
  • Decision: 🎯 Speculative Buy
  • Confidence: 🤔 Medium

The information on the site is not a financial recommendation. It is only an analytical tool.

  • Price forecast in a month: $ 1 958
  • Price forecast change in a month: -8.44%
  • Price forecast in a quarter: $ 1 433
  • Price forecast change in a quarter: -32.99%
  • Price forecast in half a year: $ 1 713
  • Price forecast change in half a year: -19.9%
  • Price forecast in a year: $ 4 250
  • Price forecast change in a year: 98.73%
How do we calculate the price forecast?

The price forecast of the M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) are created by our ML engineers in collaboration with the Data Science and Business Analytics teams using machine learning models trained on historical price, sales, and market data for each skin. The models incorporate features such as rarity, popularity, category, skin type, weapon, exterior, price history and more. Multiple time horizons are forecasted using a combination of pretrained and custom models, with parameters including price volatility, liquidity, and recent transaction volumes. All projections are based on historical trends and statistical patterns, and actual results may differ due to market uncertainties and unforeseen events.

Price forecast timeline
Price
$ 388
Action
❌ Avoid
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 478
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 478
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 766
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 288
60.15%
Result
👍 Success
August 27, 2025
Price
$ 888
Action
✋ Hold
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 1 219
Action
❌ Avoid
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 2 422
Action
📉 Sell
October 11, 2025
Price
$ 2 149
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 2 149
October 27, 2025
Price
$ 388
Action
❌ Avoid
July 2, 2025
Price
$ 430
Action
❌ Avoid
July 10, 2025
Price
$ 478
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 478
July 18, 2025
Price
$ 558
Action
🔥 Buy
July 26, 2025
Price
$ 551
Action
🔥 Buy
August 3, 2025
Price
$ 513
Action
🔥 Buy
August 11, 2025
Price
$ 574
Action
🔥 Buy
August 19, 2025
Price
$ 766
Action
📉 Sell
Earned
$ 288
60.15%
Result
👍 Success
August 27, 2025
Price
$ 888
Action
✋ Hold
September 4, 2025
Price
$ 1 219
Action
❌ Avoid
September 12, 2025
Price
$ 1 248
Action
❌ Avoid
September 20, 2025
Price
$ 1 523
Action
❌ Avoid
October 3, 2025
Price
$ 2 422
Action
📉 Sell
October 11, 2025
Price
$ 2 528
Action
📉 Sell
October 19, 2025
Price
$ 2 149
Action
🔥 Buy
Invested
$ 2 149
October 27, 2025
Price
$ 2 258
Action
🔥 Buy
November 4, 2025
Price forecasts statistics
Earned**
$ 288
$ 19.85 - avg*
Invested***
$ 2 627
$ 211 - avg*
Forecasts count
16
Buy count
2
Sell count
1
Success count
1
Fail count
0

*avg | Sitewide average across all skins

**Earned, ***Invested | Emulates buy and sell recommendations from addskins.gg

****Success/fail accuracy | Success — buy then sell at a profit, failure — buy then sell at a loss

How do we calculate forecast statistics?

Each skin’s forecast is updated approximately once a week and saved. For this skin, 16 forecasts have been generated in total. Each forecast stores key data such as predicted prices, probability of success, and recommended actions (buy, sell, or hold). Later, when real price data becomes available over time, the forecast is evaluated: the actual price movement is compared with the prediction, and the recommended actions are simulated using the real price. As a result, you can see how many buy and sell actions would have occurred, how many trades would have resulted in profit or loss, the total amount invested, and the final profit. Based on these results, the forecast accuracy for this specific skin is calculated and compared to the average accuracy of all forecasts across the site.

Price forecasts accuracy
Forecast accuracy
70%
60% - avg*
Forecast trend accuracy
29%
46% - avg*
Success/fail accuracy****
100%
79% - avg*
Damage map
2417
4129
3323
13091
Damage map
Characteristics
  • Team: Citizens
  • Magazine capacity: 30/90
  • Damage: 33
  • Spread: 0.6
  • Rate of fire: 667
  • Movement speed: 225
  • Kill reward: $ 300
Damage spread on distance
No armor
Kevlar & Helmet
1 m
100 m
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Description

The M4A4 | The Coalition Factory New is a high-accuracy assault rifle favored by many Counter-Terrorists over the AK-47 because of its accuracy. The fresh look comes in a unique gold and black paint with interlocking triangles, fashionable blue highlights, making it a temporary alliance that can change your perception of loyalty.

History

History

M4A4 | The Coalition-Factory New, this skin was added to the CS2 case on September 21st, 2021, and fell under the highly awaited "Operation Riptide" update. The sleek and formidable weapon became popular among players due to its striking look along with a flawlessly finished design.

Origin

Origin

M4A4 | The Coalition: Factory New skin, but this skin cannot be opened by containers as it is part of the 2021 Train Collection. Sleek and modern, this design symbolizes unity and collaboration among elite counter-terrorist forces.

Popularity

Popularity

The M4A4 | The Coalition Factory New has its popularity rating at an enormous 95% and is probably one of the most popular items in the CS2 community. Its appeal gets justified by steady sales and the great price people will pay for it, making it one of the most wanted skins in the game.

Rarity

Rarity

The M4A4 | The Coalition belongs to a group of 255 other Rifle skins within CS2. Its rarity, however, is Covert, making it super rare to drop, with an estimated drop chance of only 0.64%. Therefore, this makes getting a Factory New condition of The Coalition quite hard and highly wanted by collectors and players alike.

Versions

Versions

Because the float value of The M4A4 | The Coalition in Factory New ranges from 0.00 to 1.00, this skin is available in all possible exterior skins, which means it would have a consistent look. However, this does not include variations for StatTrak or Souvenir for collectors of The Coalition.

Community sentiment

Community sentiment

Community Sentiment: The sentiment in the community for M4A4 | The Coalition-Factory New concerning CS2 is predominantly positive, having received an average rating of 4.7 out of 5 stars with over 2.1K votes on addskins.gg. Moreover, it sealed its popularity when it belonged to professional CS2 s1mple.

Finish style

Finish style

This Factory New M4A4 | The Coalition features a "Gunsmith" style, with a combination of patina with custom painted techniques. The yellow and gold colors give it a very lavish feel; the finish is identical over the pattern indexes, making it consistent and pleasing on the eyes.

Price forecast

Price forecast

According to the forecast, the price of the M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) is expected fall down to $ 1 958 (-8.44%) in a month. After that, in the next quarter it will drop to $ 1 433 (-32.99%). Further ahead, it is pojected to fall to $ 1 713 (-19.9%) in half a year. Then, in a calendar year, it will likely rise to $ 4 250 (98.73%). Confidence is medium — it is advised to speculative buy.

Characteristics

Summary

Wear range

0.03
Max: 1.0
Factory new
Minimal wear
Field-tested
Well-worn
Battle-scared

Each skin has a minimum and maximum wear value, that's what we call a wear range. The line shows the available wear range for this skin.

Item Class

Pro Players